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Ten years after the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that divided the nation and unleashed chaos, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is ready.

That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Establishments Unprepared

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially fraught and transformative public vote.

"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."

Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate

The duo have analysed the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to stir debate on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.

"What haunts everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.

"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."

Legal Framework

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would support.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say that moment is imminent, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a referendum.

Absence of Substantive Discussion

Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, said McBride.

"Many are for or against the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or advocates want to engage with the basics. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Publication's Method

In the book, neither author endorses unification or the current situation. Each writes two essays that aim for neutrality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the case against, assembling financial and societal figures, previous instances and constitutional models.

Arguments cover flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and provoke conversation.

"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist good arguments on each side."

Parallel Votes

A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate claim they support unity but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.

"The Irish government must establish what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.

Possibility of Referendum

McBride considers a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent official who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, justified perspectives, he said. "One side will prevail in this matter and the other side will in the end lose but both parties has got something to learn from the opposing arguments."

Request for More Extensive Dialogue

Westminster needed to participate in the debate, said the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."